Hopewell Chin’ono
By Dickson Bandera
Zimbabwean journalist Hopewell Chin’ono says the outcome of the recent Nkulumane parliamentary by-election has laid bare the political reality that ZANU PF remains firmly positioned to retain power in the 2028 general elections, largely due to a fractured and ineffective opposition.
In a post analysing the by-election results, Chin’ono noted that ZANU PF secured 3 516 votes, while all opposition candidates combined managed only 1 727 votes, a margin he described as a clear indicator of organisational weakness and fragmentation within opposition ranks.
“The ruling party vote stands as a single, coherent bloc, while the rest is scattered across independents and small parties with no real traction,” Chin’ono said, arguing that the figures do not reflect the presence of a credible alternative government-in-waiting.
He further pointed to low voter turnout as evidence of opposition collapse in mobilisation, revealing widespread voter apathy and disillusionment with opposition leadership. Out of 22 682 registered voters in Nkulumane, about 17 539 did not cast their ballots.
In recent years, ZANU PF has steadily expanded its support base in urban areas traditionally regarded as opposition strongholds. The opposition’s internal challenges and governance missteps have prompted many residents to reassess their political allegiance, creating renewed interest in ZANU PF.
At some point, the opposition held all parliamentary seats in Bulawayo, a clear demonstration of its former dominance. However, this political landscape has since shifted, reflecting changing public sentiment and evolving urban dynamics as well as trust in the ruling ZANU PF party.
Chin’ono even mocked the weak opposition saying Zanu PF needed not to be strong because there was disunity in the opposition.
“In such an environment, the ruling party does not need to be strong or popular. It only needs the opposition to remain divided, incoherent and disconnected from the electorate,” he said.
Chin’ono argued that opposition politics is increasingly characterised by “ego projects and micro-parties” that neutralise each other, leaving ZANU PF unchallenged on the national stage. He added that there is serious lack of trust in opposition structures.
On the broader political outlook, Chin’ono said ZANU PF’s continued dominance means the party is well placed to win the 2028 elections, with the opposition likely to play a peripheral role. He believes that any future opposition movement may again emerge as a personality-driven formation rather than a strong institutional force, a terrain that favours the ruling party.
The Nkulumane by-election results, he said, showed the divided opposition remains incapable of mounting a serious electoral challenge to ZANU PF ahead of 2028.
