By Rejoyce Chimombe & Austin Chiwara
Mozambique, once heralded as a post-conflict model of peacebuilding and democratic progress in Southern Africa, now faces a crisis that threatens to undermine the very foundations of its democracy. The country’s recent elections—including the 2019 general elections, the 2023 local elections, and the controversial 2024 general elections—have been marred by allegations of electoral fraud, violent clashes, and a growing culture of intimidation. These developments, compounded by rising political violence, are triggering serious concerns about the future trajectory of democracy in Mozambique.
Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1975, Mozambique has been governed by five presidents, all from the ruling Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (FRELIMO) party. The first president, Samora Machel, led the country to independence and served until his untimely death in 1986. He was succeeded by Joaquim Chissano, who presided over the country for nearly two decades, becoming the first president to be term-limited under the country’s constitution. Armando Guebuza took office in 2005, serving two terms, followed by Filipe Nyusi, whose tenure, running from 2015 to 2025, was marked by rising discontent. The most recent president, Daniel Chapo, was inaugurated on January 15, 2025, becoming Mozambique’s fifth leader.
Although Mozambique has made significant strides in overcoming its painful past—including the devastating 16-year civil war that ended in 1992—these gains are increasingly at risk. The country’s democratic process is under assault, not only from internal political forces but from a rising tide of electoral violence, voter suppression, and allegations of electoral manipulation that continue to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the electoral process.
A Long History of Contestations
Mozambique’s political history since independence has been fraught with challenges. Following the country’s brutal civil war, the signing of the Rome General Peace Accords in 1992 marked the beginning of a new era, paving the way for multiparty elections and a hopeful future. The country’s first democratic elections in 1994 were hailed as a triumph, signaling a break from the violence and authoritarianism of the past. However, the dominance of FRELIMO in subsequent elections has increasingly raised questions about the fairness and transparency of the political system.
FRELIMO has won every presidential election since 1975, leading to accusations that it has used state resources and political influence to maintain its hold on power. In particular, opposition parties such as the Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO), once a bitter enemy during the civil war, have repeatedly alleged that FRELIMO’s control over state institutions, including the judiciary and the electoral commission, has been used to suppress opposition voices. These reports of manipulation have sparked a growing sense of disenchantment among Mozambicans, with many questioning the fairness of the electoral system.
The 2019 general elections, which saw FRELIMO secure its fourth consecutive term, were marked by widespread allegations of vote-rigging, intimidation of opposition members, and a lack of transparency. While the electoral commission claimed that the elections were free and fair, both local and international observers raised concerns about irregularities that cast doubt on the integrity of the process. RENAMO, the main opposition party, reported instances of voter suppression, especially in areas where it traditionally has strong support.
The Escalation of Electoral Violence
Electoral violence in Mozambique has escalated significantly in recent years. During the 2019 general elections, opposition supporters faced harassment, while several candidates were assaulted. In the 2023 local elections, violent clashes between FRELIMO and RENAMO supporters left many injured and several dead. The 2024 general elections saw similar patterns of violence, with FRELIMO emerging victorious amid allegations of widespread fraud, voter intimidation, and systemic manipulation.
The pattern of electoral violence is troubling, with physical attacks, destruction of opposition party property, and intimidation becoming commonplace in the run-up to elections. Reports indicate that police and military personnel have often been complicit in these violent acts, siding with FRELIMO to suppress dissent. In rural areas, where opposition support is strongest, political violence has led to heightened tensions, creating an atmosphere of fear and instability.
As noted by Alice Mabota, a human rights activist based in Maputo, “The violence is not random; it is systematic and designed to silence any dissent. It is a tool used to ensure FRELIMO remains in power.”
International observers have condemned the violence, with the European Union’s election monitoring mission citing “serious irregularities” in the 2019 and 2024 elections. In addition, the United Nations reported that more than 100 people were killed in election-related violence between 2019 and 2023, with hundreds more injured. This violence has not only undermined the credibility of the electoral process but has also taken a heavy toll on the country’s political institutions, further eroding public trust.
The Cabo Delgado Conflict: A Growing Crisis
Adding to Mozambique’s political woes is the ongoing insurgency in Cabo Delgado, a province in the country’s northern region. Since 2017, Cabo Delgado has been plagued by an escalating insurgency, with armed groups linked to the Islamic State carrying out attacks on civilians, military personnel, and infrastructure. The conflict has displaced over 1 million people, and the region has become a humanitarian crisis, exacerbating already existing social and economic challenges.
The insurgency has also added a layer of complexity to Mozambique’s political landscape, as it has exposed weaknesses in the government’s ability to secure the country’s borders and protect its citizens. The government’s response has been widely criticized for its heavy-handed tactics and alleged human rights abuses, with some reports indicating that security forces have committed atrocities against civilians, including extrajudicial killings and forced displacement.
Democracy in Mozambique: A Comparative Analysis
Mozambique’s post-conflict democracy was hoped to match other African countries countries like Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Angola, which have managed to navigate post-conflict transitions more effectively.
Rwanda, after the 1994 genocide, focused on reconciliation, economic growth, and governance reforms under President Paul Kagame. Although the political environment remains tightly controlled, Rwanda has achieved remarkable stability, development, and anti-corruption efforts. Sierra Leone, emerging from a brutal civil war in 2002, benefited from strong international support and has held peaceful elections and experienced multiple transitions of power, despite lingering economic challenges. Angola, after its civil war ended in 2002, used oil wealth to fuel economic growth. While the political system remained authoritarian under dos Santos, the transition to President João Lourenço in 2017 has seen anti-corruption measures and some political liberalization.
In contrast, Mozambique has struggled with an entrenched political system dominated by FRELIMO, where electoral violence and suppression of opposition parties have undermined democratic progress. Unlike Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Angola, Mozambique’s democratic consolidation remains at risk as political violence and manipulation continue to destabilize its political institutions.
The Strain on Opposition Parties and Democratic Institutions
The rising wave of electoral violence has had a chilling effect on opposition parties, especially RENAMO and MDM. The two opposition parties have struggled to campaign effectively, particularly in rural areas where political violence is more pervasive. Many opposition supporters have indiicated that they are afraid to express their political views publicly, fearing reprisals and violence. This climate of fear has contributed to low voter turnout in regions that traditionally support the opposition, further diminishing the legitimacy of the electoral process.
Furthermore, the escalating violence has eroded public trust in Mozambique’s democratic institutions. The National Election Commission (CNE) and the judiciary are widely seen as biased in favor of FRELIMO, and this perception has led to growing dissatisfaction with the political system. A 2024 Afrobarometer survey revealed that only 43% of Mozambicans expressed confidence in the electoral process, a significant decline from 58% in 2014. The perception of an unfair electoral system, coupled with impunity for election-related violence, has prompted many Mozambicans to question whether their votes matter at all.
As political analyst João Pereira notes, “When people see that their votes don’t count, and when perpetrators of violence are not held accountable, they lose faith in democracy. This has profound implications for the future of the nation.”
The International Response: A Call for Action
The international community has expressed concern over Mozambique’s worsening electoral violence, but the response has largely been ineffective. While the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) have issued calls for peace and dialogue, their efforts have been insufficient. The European Union and the United States condemned the violence, with the U.S. even threatening visa restrictions for implicated officials. However, these statements have not been accompanied by substantive diplomatic pressure or concrete actions.
As political instability in Mozambique intensifies, its effects are being felt across the Southern African region. “If democratic norms erode in Mozambique, it will send a dangerous signal to other countries in the region,” warns political analyst Thandi Ndlovu. “Zimbabwe and Eswatini, for example, have already faced international scrutiny for similar tactics—suppressing opposition and manipulating elections. Mozambique’s slide into authoritarianism could pave the way for a regional normalization of such practices.”
A Path to Reclaiming Democracy
Despite the gloom, there is still hope. Civil society, youth movements, and grassroots organizations continue to play a vital role in advocating for change. In 2024, groups like the Mozambican Youth Network launched voter education campaigns to promote democratic values and educate the public about the electoral process. Protests in Maputo and Nampula have also called for accountability, signaling that the people are not yet ready to give up on their democratic rights.
Reform is possible, but it will require a concerted effort both within Mozambique and from the international community. Experts suggest that measures such as an independent electoral commission, biometric voter registration, and reforms to ensure greater electoral transparency could help restore public trust. The 2019 peace agreement between FRELIMO and RENAMO, though imperfect, remains a foundation for dialogue, and resumed talks in February 2025 offer hope for further progress.
Mozambique’s path forward hinges on both domestic resolve and international support. Figures like Graça Machel, the renowned activist and widow of Nelson Mandela, inspire the struggle. “The fight for democracy is about ensuring every voice is heard and every life valued,” she recently shared. With civic pressure mounting and tentative reforms on the table, Mozambique could yet reclaim its democratic promise—but only if the international community and the Mozambican people hold their leaders accountable.
As 2025 unfolds, Mozambique’s fate will not only impact its own people but also shape the broader future of democracy in Southern Africa.
